MLB Playoffs

J. Krenn October 12, 2016

Go Cubs!

As a life long cubs fan, I am accustomed to crushing disappointment. As a good cubs fan every year I think this is going to be the year, but this year truly is. Most experts agree that the Chicago Cubs are the best team in Major League Baseball, and during the rearguard season they were. Their run differential at the end of the season was over +200, their infield started the all-star game, in other words, they were a very strong offensive team. A team is not just offense, and the Cubs also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league. Not just starting pitching, but relievers too. How dominant were they? Let’s take a look at some data to determine how as a team how dominant they really are.

Teams/Pitchers Away Rankings — **Figure 1.** Rankings of MLB/pitcher combinations playing away. The red line represents the average rating for each season, and grey bars represent the spread of the data, wide-bars: 75% and narrow-bars 95%.

In the first graph, we’ll rank the strength of the combination of MLB pitchers + there team when playing away. The Cubs hold four of the top 25 spots. With 4 of their 5 starters on the list and two pitchers, Lester and Arrieta, in the top 10. Their rotation is ripe with talent explaining why they were so good this year. Baseball wisdom would tell you that to make the playoffs you need to go at least .500 away and over .500 at home. Cubs pitching was giving you over .500 away and at home. That sort of dominance is not seen very often, which is part of the reason why this year’s Cubs team is so special.

The next graph shows just how dominant the Cubs are at home. No matter who was pitching the Cubs have a dominate squad. The Cubs entire staff takes up almost the entire top 25 with a few other pitchers sprinkled in between. Wrigley Field plays differently across the season, and the Cubs pitchers have pitched Wrigley perfectly. With the Cubs, it’s not just a question of their top two aces. From top to bottom their entire rotation makes them the team to beat in the playoffs.

Pitcher Rankings — **Figure 3.** Rankings of MLB pitchers regardless of their team.

The final graph shows the best pitchers overall and again it’s no surprise you see multiple Cubs. There are 3 Cubs pitchers and they are either former Cy Young winners or in the running for a Cy Young this year. Strong pitching goes a long way in baseball. A strong rotation can take down a strong offense, especially in the postseason. The Cubs have both a strong rotation and a strong offense. This year is going to be the year that superb pitching staff leads us all the way to the World Series.